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A Look at AAFC’s Grains Stocks Forecast


The attached chart shows the forecast year-over-year change in stocks for the major crops. Of the crops shown, stocks of peas, soybeans, oats and corn are forecast to fall year-over-year. Stocks of flax, canola and wheat (excluding durum) are to show a modest recovery year-over-year. These increases would disappear with the slightest drop in yield from the averages used by AAFC, leaving all other estimates unchanged.

As seen on the attached chart, the largest year-over-year increases in stocks are forecast for durum and barley. According to AAFC, global trade in durum is to fall by 7% in 2021-22 due to a recovery in production in both Europe and North Africa. The largest increase in stocks is seen with a 100% increase in barley stocks, from 500,000 mt in 2020-21 to 1 mmt in 2021-22. At 1 mmt, stocks would still be lower than the current five-year average (2015-16 to 2019-20) of 1.326 mmt.

Statistics Canada’s estimate for 2021 barley acres could see a higher revision ahead. At the same time, AAFC has included a lower export forecast for the crop year ahead, which could also be revised higher. The USDA’s earliest look at China’s corn imports for 2021-22 show imports unchanged year-over-year, while the recent flurry of daily sales of U.S. corn sold to China signals intent for the year ahead.

It should be noted that the bar for lentils does not appear on the attached chart. This is because AAFC has left their forecast for ending stocks for 2021-22 unchanged from the previous year at 100,000 mt. While this is not the lowest stocks seen in Statistics Canada data, stocks remain tight and could tighten further.

Wishing all a happy and safe Victoria Day long weekend!

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson



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