Canada’s Durum Exports Continue Strong

As of November, 745,900 mt has been shipped to Italy, up 122.9% from the same period in 2019/20 and up 157% from the five-year average, likely the fastest pace of movement to this market ever.

During the past five years, cumulative licensed exports as of week 22 have averaged 37% of total crop year exports to all destinations, a pace that projects forward to crop year exports of over 6 mmt, or a level that would lead to significantly tighter stocks. Due to the pace of movement, Statistics Canada’s Dec. 31 estimate of stocks will be of particular interest for this market, due for release on Feb. 5.

The current pace of exports are roughly 215,200 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current 5.320 mmt export demand forecast from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

As of Jan. 8, pdqinfo price data for the six regions of the Prairies shows prices ranging from $299.43/mt to $308.67/mt, averaging $302.82/mt.

Looking at pdqinfo’s price data during the past five years for the southern Alberta region, there has been a downward trend in the No. 1 durum price over the course of the crop year in 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18. The last two crop years, 2018-19 and 2019-20, prices followed a higher trend over the course of the crop year. In 2018-19, price advanced $13.32/mt from Jan. 1, 2019 to a high on March 7. In 2019-20, price rallied by $27.81/mt from Jan. 1 to a high on July 17.


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