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Canada’s Monthly Wheat Exports: Big Months May Lie Ahead


The attached chart shows the monthly trend in Canada’s all-wheat exports (wheat plus durum) for 2020-21 (grey bars), 2019-20 (brown bars) and the three-year average (blue bars). Note that data was utilized from Statistics Canada tables for all months expect for March 2021, with Canadian Grain Commission data utilized in advance of Statistics Canada’s release of March data.

In 2019-20, the four largest monthly volumes for the crop year were shipped in the April-through-July period, ranging from 2.113 million metric tons to 2.965 mmt, the only monthly volumes exceeding 2 mmt seen during the crop year. The average exports during the final four months of the crop year were 47% higher than the average calculated for the first eight months of the crop year.

The three-year average of all-wheat exports also results in three of the four largest months seen in the final four months of the crop year, ranging from 2.109 mmt to 2.568 mmt. Data during this period continues to support movement weighted to the final months of the crop year.

Price signals would indicate that spring wheat is currently in demand. As of the April 30 close, two of the nine prairie regions reported by pdqinfo.ca show bids for No. 1 CWRS 13.5% higher than the highs reached in July 2017. This was seen in the Peace Region and in northwest Saskatchewan. Bids across the other seven regions of the Prairies averaged $7.27/mt below their respective July 2017 highs.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson



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