Canada’s Seeded-Acre Estimate Revisions From March to Final

Of the crops selected, the greatest consistency is seen in forecasts for spring wheat and flax. In 2020, the final seeded acres for spring wheat was 4.5% lower than estimated in spring, while on average, this change is seen at a 3.8% drop from the spring estimate to the final estimate, having fallen in each of the past five years. Over an even greater span of time, final spring wheat acres have been reported below the March estimate in every year in data checked back to 2010. Looking at flax acres, the final estimate was 1.2% lower 2020, while on average, was 8.5% lower over the past five years, also falling in each of the five years.

In terms of consistency over the past five years, the next closest are canola and lentil acres, which have been revised higher in four of the past five years, along with corn, which have seen a lower revision in four of the past five years.

While not shown, summerfallow acres were revised 18.2% lower in 2020, while on average during the past five years, this estimate has fallen only 1.3% on average from the early forecast released in March to the final estimate.

Of all the crops shown, early estimates of acres seeded to oats are the most accurate, with final acres in 2020 just 0.2% higher than estimated in spring, while on average over five years, final acres were estimated just 0.6% higher.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at

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