As seen on the attached chart, or the continuous active weekly spring wheat chart, today’s July high moved above but failed to stay above the horizontal green line at $6.77 1/2, which is the 50% retracement of the move from the contract’s July 2017 high of $8.68 1/2/bu and the September 2019 low of $4.86 1/2/bu. A sustained breach of this level could result in a potential continued move to the 61.8% retracement at $7.22 1/2/bu.
As seen in the lower study of this chart, the blue bars of the histogram represent the noncommercial net-long position held in HRS. The past week’s data shows this net-long position increasing from 5,953 contracts to 11,081 contracts as of April 13, an 86% increase and the first increase in five weeks. This is the largest percentage increase seen for this contract since Oct. 19 as growing dryness experienced in the spring wheat growing area of North America.
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