Since 2000, July 31 stocks fell below 1 mmt in just three of the years shown where the new-crop November contract was rallying during the summer, seen in 2002-03, 2003-04 and 2011-12. The lowest stocks seen on a year where the November contract rallied during the summer is seen in 2004 at 609,000 metric tons.
One year to consider is 2012, where 2011-12 stocks fell to 707,000 mt as of July 31, while the November rallied $70.30/mt during the June-through-August period, which is the fourth-largest summer rally seen on the attached chart. This level of stocks represented a single-digit stocks/use ratio of 4.4%, with the following crop year resulting in stocks falling further to 588,100 mt, or 4.2% of use. This was the last time that stocks/use ratios are calculated as back-to-back single-digit ratios, which is currently what is seen in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s estimates for 2020-21 and 2021-22.
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