This outlook is consistent with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s January supply and demand estimates, released on Jan. 25, which show exports for 2020-21 revised higher to a record 5.4 million metric tons (mmt), with ending stocks revised lower to 950,000 mt, up 213,000 mt or 29% from the previous crop year.
Uncertainty remains looming with Statistics Canada’s Dec. 31 stocks estimates to be released on Feb. 5. As well, cumulative exports as of week 24 show 2.554 mmt exported, up 10.8% or 249,100 mt from the same period last year and 636,820 mt or 33.2% higher than the five-year average. Over the past two years, close to an additional 3 mmt of exports were realized in the week 25 through 52 period, which would result in exports even higher than the most recent 5.4 mmt estimate.
Commercial stocks of durum as of week 24 are reported at 928,800 mt, the highest reported for this week in five years and up 38% from last crop year.
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