That window may not be open very long either. Models suggest scattered showers will return to the majority of the region late next week and weekend, remaining mixed on where showers will be the following week. Though models hint dryness may return to southern growing areas, that may not work out as forecast.
If producers see what I am seeing, they will be quick to jump on this window as they may not get another good one for a while, at least not in central growing areas. With soil moisture continuing to be near to above normal at the surface, but below normal in the subsurface for much of the region, time will continue to slip away toward the dry season. Having corn go into reproduction with limited subsoil moisture, limited showers, and temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s Celsius (80s Fahrenheit) would likely cause reduced yields. With safrinha corn being 75% of the corn production in Brazil, that could put increased pressure on markets.
In Argentina, moderate showers during the last week have been highly beneficial to corn and soybeans. It has not showed up in the satellite estimates of crop health, but those estimates are through Jan. 24, before the recent stretch of rainfall. The front that is moving through Brazil will leave the country quiet through at least the weekend. Showers may develop next week, but look to be spotty overall. This may be enough for some areas to continue improving while others could see some conditions trend downward.
Looking ahead for Argentina, models remain mixed. The American models favor more rainfall than their European counterparts. It would be hard to trust the American suite due to the recent setup and weakening La Nina, favoring a drier forecast through February and possibly into March, which would cause increased concern about their yields as they continue to fill.
John Baranick can be reached at email@example.com
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