Trend in AAFC’s Forecast for All-Wheat Exports

As of week 19, or the week ending Dec. 13, Canada’s all-wheat exports total 9.6052 mmt, up 21% from 2019-20 and 24% higher than the three-year average for this period. The current pace of wheat exports is roughly 283,900 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current wheat export target of 19.650 mmt (licensed exports only, excluding unlicensed exports and the export of flour), while the current pace of durum exports is roughly 198,000 mt higher than the pace needed to reach the current durum export forecast. All wheat exports (licensed shipments only) are approximately 481,900 mt higher the steady pace needed to reach the current 25 mmt all-wheat export forecast.

The last point plotted each year on the attached chart is the July estimate released by AAFC, just weeks in advance of the end of the crop year on July 31. It is interesting to note that AAFC’s July estimate for the crop year exports fell below actual exports in three of the past five years (2015-16 through 2019-20). The largest variance is seen for data for the past two crop years, with the July 2019 forecast for the 2018-19 crop year 564,000 mt below the final export tally for the crop year, while the July 2020 forecast for the 2019-20 crop year was 1.271 mmt below the final reported exports for the crop year. Over five years, the final July estimate averaged 321,520 mt below the crop year’s actual exports.


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