USDA Points to Bullish Spring Wheat Fundamentals in the US


The black line with markers represents the stocks/use ratio for U.S. spring wheat. U.S. data shows this as reaching as high as 50.4% as recent as two years ago or in 2019-20, the highest seen since 1990-91, while July data shows this calculation at 24.2%, the lowest level seen since 2007-08. This ratio has been shown lower on only four of the years during the 34 years shown on the chart.

A valid question was asked during DTN’s July WASDE Webinar today and that was how high can the Minneapolis future go when much of the Canadian Prairies is also facing similar challenges? While prairie producers will have clear insight into the devastation caused by dry conditions and extended record-breaking heat, Statistics Canada will not release official production estimates based on July surveys until Aug. 30. On Sept. 14, the agency will release model-based estimates based on August data.

Resistance from weekly highs on the continuous active chart are seen at the July 2017 high of $8.68 1/2/bushel (bu), the July 2012 high of $10.35/bu and the June 2011 high of $11.20/bu. A breach of the nearby $8.68 1/2/bu could clear the way for a continued move to the 33% retracement of the move from the February 2008 high to the September 2009 low, calculated at $9.73 1/4/bu.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week’s poll question asks which crop you think has the greatest upside price potential over the upcoming crop year. Please feel free to weigh in with your thoughts, with this poll found on the lower-right side of your DTN Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson



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